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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-slumps-versus-euro-as-gold-futures-soar-2009-11-09

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November 9, 2009!

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FNMA 4.5% closed UP 19 bps...so rates steady in the high 4%/low 5% range for 30 year fixed money.

Dow was UP 204 points again today putting the number well over 10,000.

Health Care Bill passed in the house to go on to the senate. Yikes. We will have to see where that goes. See comments I have made on this by going to www.chadcan.com and searching "health care".

Dollar Bill Blues: The US dollar fell to 15 month lows today against other currencies and energy futures were up. Gold closed up the session at just over $1100 an ounce. Here is a decent article with more on that:

40 billion in T-notes were auctioned off and received well by the markets today which provided some lift to the bond market. 25 billion in 10 year T-notes will be auctioned off tomorrow.

The G20 notes from the day suggested that investors should be getting away from investments in the US dollar today. What is the G20 though? It boils down to a group of smarties who get together every year to talk matters of economy. Check this great what is it website for more info: http://www.g20.org/about_what_is_g20.aspx

Chad

Chad Schauers
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EXTENDED Home Buyer's Credit info...and Links

In a major victory for NAHB and HBAM members that will boost the fledgling housing recovery and help struggling business owners nationwide, Congress yesterday approved legislation that will extend the first-time home buyer tax credit beyond its Nov. 30 deadline and expand it to a wider group of home buyers. The bill also provides relief to cash-strapped home builders by providing broader tax benefits for businesses with net operating losses (NOLs).

Thanks to your efforts, HBAM's advocacy program generated over 320 letters to our Congressional delegation on this issue.

The legislation, which will be signed into law shortly by President Obama, will extend the $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers for sales contracts entered into by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30. Further, it has been expanded to include a new $6,500 credit for owners of existing homes who are purchasing a new primary residence. An existing home owner can claim the $6,500 tax credit if they have been residing in their primary residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight.

In more good news, the income eligibility limits to claim the full credit amount for both groups of home buyers have been raised from $75,000 for single taxpayers and $150,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return to $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for married couples. NAHB’s consumer-oriented Web site, www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com, will provide complete details on the enhanced home buyer tax credit after the bill is signed into law by the President.

For NOLs, the new law will allow all businesses -- regardless of size -- with operating losses in 2008 or 2009, not both, to claim refunds on taxes paid up to five years ago. Businesses can offset 100% of taxable income with NOLs carried back in years one through four and offset 50% of income in year five. Small businesses with less than $15 million in gross receipts would be able to claim a five-year carryback for 2008 losses under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and for 2009 losses under the new law. The new net operating loss provisions will throw a lifeline to struggling businesses, allowing them to continue making payrolls, paying business loans and otherwise keep their doors open until the economic recovery takes hold.

Last Action on the Home Buyer Tax Credit

Even as Congress neared completion on the legislation, proponents made it perfectly clear that the home buyer tax credit would not be extended when it expires next year. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), a long-time champion of the home buyer tax credit, said: "This is the last extension of the home buyer tax credit. Tax credits like this only work by creating the sense of urgency to take advantage of it, and to bring the market back."

On the floor of the Senate, Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said that, “It’s important that this tax credit does not become a permanent fixture in the tax code. Our amendment would end the credit on April 30 of next year. This extension would get us through the winter – traditionally the worst season for real estate. Our amendment would jump-start the housing market as it enters the summer months of 2010.” Baucus added that the seven-month extension of the tax credit would be “long enough to encourage home buyers to buy homes, but it’s short enough to remain fiscally responsible.”

A Federation-Wide Effort

This legislation is the result of months of determined effort by the entire NAHB federation. This summer, NAHB instituted a “Revive Housing, Restore America” campaign calling on Congress to extend the home buyer tax credit’s Nov. 30 expiration date and expand its eligibility to more buyers, to provide net operating loss carryback relief for all businesses, and to urge regulators to resolve credit and appraisal problems that have been hampering a housing recovery.

In the interim, NAHB has worked tirelessly to make this a reality. On the legislative and grassroots front, our lobbyists have been in continuous contact with House and Senate congressional leaders and encouraging action on several fronts to achieve our housing priorities. We have testified before Congress on several occasions on the need for lawmakers to act quickly on the tax credit and our other housing priorities and warned lawmakers that a failure to act quickly could derail the fragile housing recovery even before it has time to take hold.

During key stages of the campaign, we activated our grassroots network to meet with their lawmakers when they were in their home districts and to visit them on Capitol Hill. We have inundated congressional offices with more than 10,000 e-mails and 1,500 phone calls urging senators and representatives from both parties to extend and expand the home buyer tax credit to create jobs, spur home sales, reduce foreclosures, stabilize home values and push housing and the economy to higher ground.

NAHB’s Economics and Housing Policy experts crunched the numbers and estimated the economic impacts of the proposals. This information, particularly the number of jobs and home sales created by extending and enhancing the home buyer tax credit, was circulated among lawmakers and quoted widely in the media. It made a compelling argument for our case.

A Housing Coalition Second to None

To help get this vital legislation across the finish line, NAHB worked with the National Association of Realtors and Mortgage Bankers Association during the past few months to form the most powerful coalition to speak for our industry. Our joint lobbying, grassroots and public relations efforts were heard loud and clear by Washington policymakers.

Appearing at the same Senate Banking Committee hearing, our three organizations brought different perspectives in testifying on the urgent need to take action on the home buyer tax credit. We also sent a joint letter to the Obama Administration calling for the tax credit to be extended and made available to all purchasers of a principal residence.

On the public relations front, NAHB and the National Association of Realtors recently ran a full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal and USA Today calling on Congress to extend and expand the home buyer tax credit to create jobs and put America back to work. To bolster this message to Congress, NAHB, the Realtors and the Mortgage Bankers Association for the past several weeks ran a series of joint advertisements in the Capitol Hill publications Roll Call, Politico, CQ Weekly, the National Journal and The Hill with the message, “Congress: Don’t Let America’s Real Estate Recovery Expire.”

Local Builders Lend Their Voices to Our Effort

To further increase public awareness on our housing priorities, NAHB during the past several weeks conducted several regional teleconferences with builders across the nation to generate media attention for our campaign goals. Builders provided perspectives on their individual housing markets and the urgent need for congressional action on the home buyer tax credit and other important housing initiatives. EOs, HBA presidents and other builder constituents across the country utilized NAHB’s resources at www.nahb.org/ReviveHousingNow, a one-stop site that contains information to call or e-mail your members of Congress, print ads, op-ed letters for use in local newspapers and more.

Our national media outreach has also been quite successful. NAHB CEO Jerry Howard conducted a New York media tour in mid-September, where he discussed the need to extend the home buyer tax credit with reporters at the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and CNN/Money. He delivered the same message in interviews with Fox Business News and Bloomberg Television. Other major media outlets in recent weeks have reported on NAHB’s housing priorities, including CNBC, U.S. News & World Report, MarketWatch, AP, Reuters, The Today Show, The Washington Post, the Chicago Tribune and the Baltimore Sun.

Across the nation, 16 op-eds in 11 states were published in favor of NAHB’s position on extending the tax credit, including nine that were placed by local HBAs. Our locals proved very adept at promoting media coverage to push our campaign goals. A prime example was a YouTube video by the HBA of Kansas, which has attracted a great deal of attention on the Web and was sent by the HBA to their representatives in Congress.

NAHB Public Affairs has worked diligently to promote the tax credit to consumers. Our Web site at www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com, which provides detailed information on the tax credit compiled by the NAHB Economics and Housing Policy team, has attracted five million visits so far, and we’ve charted thousands of followers on Twitter, FaceBook and YouTube combined. To further generate public interest, NAHB created a consumer-focused Web site at www.ReviveHousingNow.com to urge potential buyers to contact their lawmakers and ask them to extend the home buyer tax credit.

The actions listed above highlight our efforts to get this legislation passed and certainly demonstrate the value of NAHB to our membership. On an issue of enormous importance to the housing industry, the entire NAHB federation has worked together to get the job done. I want to thank everyone for their hard work. Together, we have made a difference for our industry.

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Friday, November 6, 2009

Its Official...Tax credit extended. Bond UP and Dow FLAT

President Obama signed the bill that makes the tax credit officially extended. To all fence sitters: Whew. Lenders, builders, realtors, title companies and home buyers all breath a sigh of relief as all the November closings just became a little less critical.

FNMA 4.5% picked up 27 bps today with a few hours left of trading.

Dow is about flat but up 12 basis points.

Gold reaches $1100 an ounce...which really has people wondering why the feds are not giving out clues that they are worried about inflation. Investors are obviously worried about it.

Unemployment rate reaches 10.2% with the latest reportings. Estimated 190,000 jobs lost in October. Hopefully some light here soon. With all the extra government spending we have seen a "growth" in the GDP...while unemployment continues to rise. Many are skeptical and feel that the massive government spending is not creating any long-term, sustainable jobs or real growth.

Have a great weekend!

Chad

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Tax credit PASSED the house...B.O. to sign the bill now. DOW UP 200 points and FNMA 4.5% UP 19 bps

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November 5, 2009!

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We knew it was coming...Tax credit passed the house today! Whew. $8000 credit will be extended...and $6500 will be extended to people who have owned a home for 5 of the last 8 years. Income limits are also UP...with people making up to

FNMA 4.5% bond picked up 19 bps. Feds plan to continue buying mortgage backed securities into the first quarter of 2010.

Dow picked up a cool 204 points mostly on the reporting of better than expected "productivity" among other "reasons" cited. It closed at just over 10,000 points.

Initial unemployment claims fell. Just over 1/2 million people made their initial claim for umemployment last week. Yikes.

Tomorrow's job report has everyone on the edge of their seats. Earlier this week ADP put out their report and it showed just over 200 thousand jobs lost. Analysts expect the jobs report (non-farm payrolls) tomorrow to show about 175,000 jobs lost for October.

This could take unemployment close to 10%...or EMPLOYMENT down to 90% depending on how you look at it.

Have a great eve!~

Chad

Chad

Chad Schauers
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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Market Insight=FED rates news+Gold UP+DOW UP+Bonds Steady...

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November 4, 2009!

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Yo!

FNMA 4.5% held strong and gained just 6 basis points...or 6 cents today. Rates to hold in the 5% range for 30 year fixed money.

Gold continues to be a compelling story. The metal hit another record high today getting to $1092 an ounce before relaxing some from there to $1087/oz.

FED NEWS: FOMC meeting was adjourned today and the statement issued by the group left us feeling as though they intend to let things ride the way they are for some time. Investors leery of inflation wrinkled their noses some as they were expecting at least some indication that the feds were going to raise the funds rate which is currently at "0.00-0.25%.

Remember: raising the fed funds rate tends to control inflation by making US dollars more "expensive" to get a hold of. "more expensive to buy" means the US dollars are worth MORE. So: inflation is kept in check.

DOW: was UP 150 points at one time this afternoon after the FOMC statement above...and then rapidly deteriorated in the last 30 minutes of trading to be UP about 30 points on the day. Some of you may remember this from before but so MUCH volatility in the last hour of trading is coming from automated trading. Computerized trade orders generally come in the last hour of the day. Another finger was pointed at investors looking to "lock in profit" by selling while the prices were higher for some additional year-end profit.

Chad

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406 522 0922

--
Chad Schauers
Have you metChad?
MetLife Home Loans
406.522.0922
406.522.0924 (fax)
1924 W. Stevens, Ste. 202
Bozeman, MT 59718

Cell: 406 799 8613
ccschauers@metlifehomeloans.com

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Gold hits $1085/oz! Bond and Dow Steady...

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GOLD is all the way up close to $1085/oz. Yikes. Strangely, the dollar was also up today. Some are pointing the finger at India's Central Bank who Bought 200 TONS of it. Some are reacting to the news saying that gold will again collapse. It did hit $1000/an ounce in the 80's... I am afraid that it will stay up for a while though. Remember that every U.S. Dollar was at one time backed with GOLD... When currency goes haywire: people look back to one of the original currencies and something recognized worldwide as being "of value". Unfortunately, when the bubble bursts: it could be devastating for many who are converting their entire fortunes into gold to "protect" themselves from double digit inflation and the deterioration of the US dollar.

FNMA 4.5% bond is trading down about 12 bps today after being further underwater for much of the middle of the trading session.

Dow is off about 8 points is all.

Traders are trying to keep their positions LEVEL as they wait out the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting. We will hear what the FOMC has been talking about tomorrow. They are the group who decides when to begin raising the fed funds rate again. Last December they drove the rate down to "From 0%-0.25%" which seemed really strange. Theory is: cheaper money borrowed from the feds (low fed funds rates) makes it easier for businesses to borrow it and then use it to enhance the economy with lending and other business ventures. When things start heating up too much, they raise the funds rate to make money less accessible and therefore curb inflation. (Inflation = devalued US dollar because it is so readily available for cheap.)

Cheers,

Chad

Chad Schauers
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