Market Insight
Have you metChad?
Fnma 4.5%: lost 6bps today at the bell...after a struggle today to stay close to the mark. A poorly recieved auction of $34 billion worth of 5 year treasury notes eroded pricing somewhat. 30 year rates are up from last weeks lows coming in at 4.75%-ish today. The NY fed bought just over $7 billion worth of t-notes TODAY. I thought of a better analogy for this activity: if you owned a store and wanted to make more money...would you just buy stuff from yourself? That is what is happening. China is serious about their intent to move toward a standard monetary system worldwide. Sounds radical... Tim Geithner actually voiced a positive opinion on this...and later "clarified" retracting his statement. The dollar plummeted almost as soon as the words crossed his lips. Naturally China is nervous about our domestic monetary policy with all the holdings they have currently in US dollars. Inflation for us means their holdings are "worth" less.
Interesting article with perhaps some "sunshine" at the end...you decide.
Great News was in play today! New home sales rose 4.7%...marking the first increase since July 2008...and came in about 10% higher than expected...and inventory is down. Remember that as sales soak up inventory: we will see stabilization.
Durable goods orders (measure of orders by a survey of manufacturers) is UP today about 6% HIGHER than expectation.
Dow Gained 90 points after being up nearly 200 early in the session... Analysts are hoping this latest climb will stick. Check out the graph showing the "Great Recession vs. the Great Depression." It is interesting.
Happy Selling!
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stuck his foot in his mouth once more and sent the U.S. dollar on a roller-coaster ride with comments about China's proposal of for a new global reserve currency that conflicted with present U.S. government policy. Geithner had to quickly clarify his remarks when the dollar immediately began tanking following his initial comments. The Dow ended a volatile session with a gain of nearly 90 points to close at 7,749 while the broader S&P 500 Index added 7 points to finish at 813. The NASDAQ Composite Index rose 12 points to end at 1,528.
4:01 PM ET - Wild swings on Wall Street today as the Dow had been up 200 points then fell 100 points and closed up nearly 90 points. The poor showing from the treasury auction surprisingly led Stocks lower but finshed higher. The Dow has now closed higher 9 out of the last 14 trading days. MBS lower but not by much.
2:58 PM ET - IBM layoffs and a poor auction the catalyst behind Stocks moving into the red. The poor auction could signal to investors that China and Japan are scaling back on buying our debt - but one auction does not make a trend. MBS slightly lower.
2:00 PM ET - MBS go from daily highs to daily lows - Stocks now near unchanged after the Dow had been up as much as 203 points.
1:32 PM ET - Support at $101.56 for the 4.5% FNMA Bond holds as MBS bounce higher and trade back into the green.
1:17 PM ET - MBS drop to lowest level of the day but have just improved off that level - market still seems jittery. Stocks giving back gains.
12:23 PM ET - Commercial Mortgage Bonds extend rally on toxic asset plan.
12:19 PM ET - Treasury Secretary Geithner says the pace of deterioration has slowed in certain areas. Fed's Pianalto says Fed is prepared to expand balance sheet further and says TALF program crucial to getting credit flowing again.
12:05 PM ET - Fed purchases $7.5B in Treauries in 2016 and 2019 maturity dates. MBS still flat.
11:27 AM ET - Reuters reports Fed kicks off purchases of longer-dated government debt - no details yet.
11:00 AM ET - No hint yet of Fed buying Treasuries. MBS clinging to unchanged. Stocks near session highs.
10:02 AM ET - New Home sales better than expected at 337K vs estimates of 300K. The previous month revised upward to 322K vs 309K. No reaction yet from MBS, which are near unchanged. Stocks move a leg higher - the Dow now up 151 points.
9:57 AM ET - MBS trade into positive territory ahead of the New Home sales report due at 10:00am ET. Stocks open sharply higher after the durables report.
8:33 AM ET - Durable orders come in better than expected. Stock futures push higher after the news. MBS trading lower. Oil lower by $1.40 at $52.57/barrel.
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Chad Schauers
Have you metChad?
MetLife Home Loans
406.522.0922
406.522.0924 (fax)
1924 W. Stevens, Ste. 202
Bozeman, MT 59718
Cell: 406 799 8613
ccschauers@metlifehomeloans.com
4:01 PM ET - Wild swings on Wall Street today as the Dow had been up 200 points then fell 100 points and closed up nearly 90 points. The poor showing from the treasury auction surprisingly led Stocks lower but finshed higher. The Dow has now closed higher 9 out of the last 14 trading days. MBS lower but not by much.
2:58 PM ET - IBM layoffs and a poor auction the catalyst behind Stocks moving into the red. The poor auction could signal to investors that China and Japan are scaling back on buying our debt - but one auction does not make a trend. MBS slightly lower.
2:00 PM ET - MBS go from daily highs to daily lows - Stocks now near unchanged after the Dow had been up as much as 203 points.
1:32 PM ET - Support at $101.56 for the 4.5% FNMA Bond holds as MBS bounce higher and trade back into the green.
1:17 PM ET - MBS drop to lowest level of the day but have just improved off that level - market still seems jittery. Stocks giving back gains.
12:23 PM ET - Commercial Mortgage Bonds extend rally on toxic asset plan.
12:19 PM ET - Treasury Secretary Geithner says the pace of deterioration has slowed in certain areas. Fed's Pianalto says Fed is prepared to expand balance sheet further and says TALF program crucial to getting credit flowing again.
12:05 PM ET - Fed purchases $7.5B in Treauries in 2016 and 2019 maturity dates. MBS still flat.
11:27 AM ET - Reuters reports Fed kicks off purchases of longer-dated government debt - no details yet.
11:00 AM ET - No hint yet of Fed buying Treasuries. MBS clinging to unchanged. Stocks near session highs.
10:02 AM ET - New Home sales better than expected at 337K vs estimates of 300K. The previous month revised upward to 322K vs 309K. No reaction yet from MBS, which are near unchanged. Stocks move a leg higher - the Dow now up 151 points.
9:57 AM ET - MBS trade into positive territory ahead of the New Home sales report due at 10:00am ET. Stocks open sharply higher after the durables report.
8:33 AM ET - Durable orders come in better than expected. Stock futures push higher after the news. MBS trading lower. Oil lower by $1.40 at $52.57/barrel.
--
Chad Schauers
Have you metChad?
MetLife Home Loans
406.522.0922
406.522.0924 (fax)
1924 W. Stevens, Ste. 202
Bozeman, MT 59718
Cell: 406 799 8613
ccschauers@metlifehomeloans.com
