Friday, June 19, 2009

FNMA 4.5% is working to recover...we are up about 30 bps with about 90 minutes of trading left for the week. I saw an interesting graph today which showed the reaction of our 4.5% bond to the fed T-note auctions. It was interesting to see the deterioration in pricing with each announcement of massive auctions as well as the actual auctions hitting the market.


The good news: prices leveled out today. The tougher news: volatility will continue.

Statewide unemployment: Montana is still looking good in the 4-5% range...but states like Oregon at 12% and 14% for Michigan are not doing as well. Remember that the local market is most important when we are looking at real estate.

Diesel! Anyone else notice that the price of diesel is less than the price of gasoline? We have not seen that since 2007. This is because global demand is down. The bummer: refineries are not producing as much diesel right now so when winter hits...we could be in short supply so prices will bump. The supply of gasoline is currently about 30 days greater than it was a year ago right now and refineries are dialing back production there which will also bring that pricing up. Hopefully oil stays in check as that determines production cost for both diesel and gasoline...but supply and demand dictates the market. It will be interesting to see that play out.

HAPPY FATHER's DAY!