Yo!

Today gave us what we expected...some serious turbulence.

The FNMA 4.5% bond was sailing on the lower than expected consumer confidence number of 46 vs. the 49 expected. The WEAKER than expected response to the HUGE bond auction of the day drove bonds MUCH LOWER this afternoon though and we say prices get worse...then the bond recovered late in the session and was actually UP 25bps on the day.

30 year fixed still in the low 5's...and with "refinances" starting to taper off...I have plenty of room for August closings. Please let me know if I can help you in any way to deliver a great experience to your contacts.

Consumer Confidence: This report comes from surveying 5000 consumers over 9 census areas to get a broad idea of how they are "feeling" about the economy. Items such as how they are spending are important and this report can indicate "pent up demand" or a "willingness to spend" long before data is released showing either an economic slowdown or recovery. With this number being less than expected today: money flowed over into bonds. If things were 'better than expected' investors may have been more confident and taken money out of bonds to be put into the stock market.

Tomorrow the Fed's Beige Book notes will be reviewed. This is the "minutes" from the latest meeting and can move the markets depending on the types of things they were talking about and expecting for the future. Remember: the concept of "investment" relies on a positive outcome PROJECTION for the FUTURE. Any reports that indicate trends...can indicate FUTURE expectations and if they are positive or negative to the "status quo": markets can move.

Have a great eve!

Chad